The podcast originally appeared on 'Uncovering Politics' from UCL's Department of Political Science. This week we’re looking at opinion polls. How are they done? What makes them sometimes go wrong? And how should we interpret their findings?
The podcast originally appeared on 'Uncovering Politics' from UCL's Department of Political Science.
In the run up to the UK General Election we have a special episode on opinion polls.
Opinion polling is a staple of modern elections, captivating political enthusiasts with fluctuating numbers but also sparking controversy. Polls are sometimes criticized for inaccuracies, notably in the Brexit referendum and the 2016 US presidential election. Polling methods, including sampling and voter prediction, are hotly debated. The emergence of MRP polls, which accurately estimated results in the 2017 UK election, has added to the intrigue, despite producing widely varying predictions for the outcome of the current UK election. So what should we make of the polls? And how can we best interpret all the numbers to understand what’s really going on?
Our guest is Prof Ben Lauderdale. Ben is Professor of Political Science here at UCL, a former Senior Data Science Advisor to the polling firm YouGov, the original brain behind the development of MRP methods and general polling guru.
UCL’s Department of Political Science and School of Public Policy offers a uniquely stimulating environment for the study of all fields of politics, including international relations, political theory, human rights, public policy-making and administration. The Department is recognised for its world-class research and policy impact, ranking among the top departments in the UK on both the 2021 Research Excellence Framework and the latest Guardian rankings.